Patently-O has reported an interesting development. the USPTO have published a spreadsheet that uses historical data regarding the number of examiners, backlogs of pending applications and the like, to simulate the effects of hiring and firing and new filings on USPTO backlogs.
See http://www.patentlyo.com/patent/2009/12/play-the-patent-office-director-game.html
The Israel Patent Office has been hit by the world-wide recession with a large drop in new filings. However, to reach the magic 100 examiner number to become an International Search Authority for the PCT, has recruited new examiners and is still looking for more.
Unfortunately, due to a complicated geopolitical reality, Israel cannot join forces with her neighbors and set up a regional examination group.
I suppose cutting the number of new filings by 99% to adjusting the USPTO model to the Israeli reality and making similar adjustments for the number of examiners was a little unfair, but it does have interesting repercussions. The model needs some tweaking, but it is one way to examine if applicants are likely to be issued a Notice Before Examination prior to filing their applications, for example.
This is not that far-fetched. The EPO issues a European number to PCT applications on the off-chance that the applicant will file in Europe. Israel could perhaps do the same, and maybe inform potential applicants that if they file their ‘green’ applications and invoke Section 17c, the patent could issue prior to being drafted or something.
Unfortunately, like all modelling software, there are bugs that need ironing out. For example, there is no RCE in Israel. Nevertheless, the program does offer some fascinating insights into what goes into running a patent office. With the head of the USPTO blogging, I see no reason why I can’t use his software to make predictions. Of course, none of us predicted the world-wide recession even as late as June 2008, and we don’t know how the soon-to-announced Bilski ruling will shuffle the deck. Perhaps I’ll stick to the tea-leaves…
